Steve Spagnuolo vs. Josh Allen is key battle of AFC Championship – Arrowhead Pride
Filed under:The conference title could come down to how well the Bills’ offense handles Spags’ situational strategies.If you buy something from an SB Nation link, Vox Media may earn a commission. See our ethics statement.The modern history between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills sets up the AFC Championship to be an incredible chess match. Both coaching staffs have grown severely familiar with the other, forcing each side to install a layer of unpredictability in the usual scheme.For Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, that will mean attempting to confuse and disrupt Bills quarterback Josh Allen. This will be the ninth matchup between the veteran playcaller and the gunslinger. Chiefs offensive coordinator Matt Nagy has a perspective on battling Spagnuolo’s play-calling. During Thursday’s press conference, he affirmed the idea that Spagnuolol has levels to his strategy, keeping even the most common opponents guessing.“It’s not easy; I can tell you that,” Nagy told reporters. “We get to go against [Spagnuolo] in training camp, and he presents a lot of different challenges… the Bills and Chiefs have been going against each other for a while, so player to player, coach to coach, you want to make sure you’re good with your tendencies; unscouted looks, how do you handle those.”A general tendency of the current Chiefs’ defensive strategy is blitzing: Kansas City finished the regular season with the NFL’s fourth-highest blitz rate (32%). Spagnuolo wants to heat up the opposing quarterback and force rushed decisions.In the regular season, Allen ranked second in EPA per dropback against the blitz, throwing 16 touchdowns to just one interception. The lone mistake came against the Chiefs in Week 11, when pressure forced a hurried, uneasy throw on fourth down.Chamarri Conner intercepts Allen on 4th down! : #KCvsBUF on CBS/Paramount+ : https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/gjcr1O8j0LThat play highlights the importance of winning the handful of plays that make or break the game. Spagnuolo acknowledged that in his press conference on Thursday.“It is going to come down to the situational football,” Spagnuolo pointed out to reporters. “We need to be better in third down, we need to win in red zone; we played good in red zone last week and that made a big difference.”In the Divisional round, the Chiefs held the Houston Texans to field goals on two of the three trips inside the 20-yard line. The defense halted three other possessions that advanced into Kansas City territory. The Bills’ offense will offer a stronger challenge to the Chiefs’ situational defense: Buffalo ended the regular season ranked seventh in third-down conversion rate and second in red-zone touchdown rate.“They are going to move the football; we recognize that,” Spagnuolo asserted. “We’re not going to stop everything, we’re not going to shut somebody down, we need to slow them down then try to win those situational downs.”The Bills surrendered sacks on just 4.1% of third-down dropbacks this season, the lowest rate in the NFL. Through two postseason games, Allen only once succumbed to a sack on third down, but it occurred after a long stretch of maneuvering a clean pocket and not finding an open receiver against the Denver Broncos.Buffalo has weapons to quickly dish the ball to and prevent pressure from getting home, but Allen’s sack avoidance primarily stems from his running ability. Allen is averaging 8.8 yards per scramble this season through the playoffs, moving the chains 50% of the time he runs the ball.“Up front, talking about the four or five guys that we bring, they need to function as one,” Spagnuolo emphasized. “Because he finds one little seam, and if we have guys in man with their backs turned, that’s where he [is dangerous].”In Week 11, the Chiefs totaled 13 missed tackles, a significantly higher number than a typical game. Head coach Andy Reid pointed out tackling discipline as a factor in defending Allen and the Bills in the AFC Championship.“He’s tough to get down,” Reid stated. “You have to stay disciplined and stay in your lanes, then you go from there. Once you have ahold of him, you better know he’s tough to bring down, so you better finish it.”Allen’s ability to run through contact keeps Buffalo’s playbook wide open on third down.“For them, you go third-and-2 to [third-and-6], there is still a chance they run the football,” Spagnuolo warned. “That’s tremendously challenging for a defense when you have a quarterback that can do that. We know they’ll go for it on fourth down in certain situations. We’d like to get them in those longer third downs, but that’s easier said than done.”While the Chiefs focus on Allen as much as possible, Buffalo will attempt to throw them off with disguised scheme and creative personnel.“From our standpoint, it’s all about eye discipline,” Spagnuolo proclaimed. “The eye candy is all the moving that they do; they are really good at it. We’re watching plays on tape and wondering how they practice it and get the timing down so well. They’ve done a great job up there as coaches. We just can’t let our eyes lost.”The Bills’ eye candy will be matched by plenty of teases from Chiefs’ defenders deployed by Spagnuolo. The aggressive calls will attempt to catch Allen off guard, but Spagnuolo understands how difficult that is to do to a player of his caliber.“He sees everything… He’s like Patrick [Mahomes],” Spagnuolo praised. “Their vision is uncanny, so I think he can sense and feel when there is an opening, and that’s what gets really challenging.”The AFC Championship will depend on a few plays in key moments, and the effectiveness of Spagnuolo’s strategies in those situations could decide who will compete in Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans.Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537). Hope is here. GamblingHelpLineMA.org or call (800) 327-5050 for 24/7 support (MA). Visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). Call 877-8HOPE-NY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). 21+ (18+ D.C.) and present in select states (for KS, in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino). 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