Oregon State University researchers say an active undersea volcano off the coast of Oregon could erupt in 2025 – KGW.com
Next up in 5Example video title will go here for this videoNext up in 5Example video title will go here for this videoNEWPORT, Ore. — Deep beneath the Pacific Ocean, nearly a mile underwater, scientists are keeping a close watch on a very active underwater volcano.The Axial Seamount volcano is located about 300 miles west of Astoria along the Juan de Fuca Ridge — and this undersea volcano is showing signs it could erupt again soon, according to Bill Chadwick, a research associate at Oregon State University’s Hatfield Marine Science Center.“We’re interested in the tectonics of the northeast Pacific in the Pacific Northwest,” Chadwick said.Axial Seamount holds particular intrigue for researchers due to its active hydrothermal vents and unique biological communities. Unlike the iconic peaks of the Cascade Range, such as Mount St. Helens or Mount Hood, the base of Axial Seamount is only about 3,300 feet in height. But it has been more active in the last 30 years, erupting three times, with the most recent eruption in 2015.Chadwick and his colleagues have an advantage in studying Axial Seamount. A 300-mile-long fiberoptic cable connects the volcano to the mainland from Pacific City, allowing scientists to monitor its activity in real time.“It’s probably the most well-monitored submarine volcano on the planet because of all that,” he said.Through continuous observation, Chadwick and his team have detected a pattern: between eruptions, the seafloor gradually rises as magma accumulates. “What we’ve observed is that it has a pretty regular cycle between one eruption and the next,” Chadwick explained.Based on this cycle, Chadwick predicts Axial Seamount is approaching its next eruption. “It’s at or almost at that inflation threshold where it erupted last time. So we think it’s ready to erupt,” he said, cautiously forecasting an eruption in 2025. The volcano’s activity has picked up in the last year, with increasing numbers of tiny earthquakes signaling magma movement beneath the surface. “All these earthquakes are happening, so it seems like now it’s finally getting in the buildup phase to an eruption,” Chadwick noted.Fortunately, there’s no danger to humans from an eruption at Axial Seamount. “There’s no hazard to people. There’s no reason to do it for warning,” he said. The volcano’s depth and distance from shore ensure it won’t trigger a tsunami or affect surface conditions.“It’s deep; it’s offshore. During an eruption, there’s lots of earthquakes, but they’re tiny earthquakes. It’s not going to cause a (Cascadia) Subduction Zone earthquake. It’s perfectly safe,” Chadwick emphasized.Instead of dramatic explosions, eruptions at Axial Seamount produce lava flows that reshape the seafloor without impacting the surface ocean. Away from its hydrothermal vents, the volcanic landscape is barren — but near the vents, life thrives.“At the hydrothermal vents, there’s like a riot of life because there’s all this energy,” Chadwick said. “There’s all these animals — limpets, worms, crabs — and that attracts octopuses. So there’s this whole ecosystem down there.”For researchers, Axial Seamount offers a unique opportunity to improve volcanic forecasting. “If we can successfully forecast an eruption here, then there’s lessons learned that we can probably apply to other volcanoes that are more dangerous on land. That’s the motivation,” Chadwick said.Though confident in his predictions, Chadwick acknowledged the challenges of forecasting eruptions. “I think it’ll erupt before the end of this year, before the end of 2025. I’m about 50% sure,” he said.For now, scientists will continue monitoring the undersea volcano, eager to learn from its next move.Notifications can be turned off anytime in the browser settings.
