NFL Free Agency Winners & Losers (2025 Fantasy Football) – FantasyPros
NFL free agency always brings chaos, reshaping team rosters and shaking up fantasy football values. Some players land in ideal situations, primed to break out, while others see their stock plummet due to new competition or unfavorable circumstances.As we gear up for the 2025 fantasy season, Andrew Erickson, Pat Fitzmaurice and Derek Brown break down the biggest winners and losers from this year’s free agency period — highlighting which players gained the most value and who took the biggest hits.Whether you’re preparing for upcoming best ball drafts or looking ahead to dynasty moves, these takeaways will help you stay ahead of the competition.Let’s dive in.J.J. McCarthy (QB – MIN)“Everything’s coming up Milhouse,” Simpsons character Milhouse Van Houten once exclaimed upon a run of good luck.Well, everything’s coming up J.J. McCarthy this NFL offseason.The 10th overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft, McCarthy missed his entire rookie season after tearing his meniscus in the preseason. Sam Darnold played well in McCarthy’s absence, leading the Minnesota Vikings to the playoffs. But Minnesota chose not to re-sign Darnold and also declined to re-sign Daniel Jones, who had joined the team last season after his release from the New York Giants. McCarthy now seems destined to be the Vikings’ Week 1 starter.Minnesota also dramatically upgraded its offensive line, adding arguably the best free-agent guard available in Will Fries along with center Ryan Kelly.The Vikings also re-signed veteran running back Aaron Jones, who’s coming off a 1,138-yard rushing season and provides offensive balance.— Pat FitzmauriceCaleb Williams (QB – CHI)One of the biggest needs the Chicago Bears had to address this offseason was improving the offensive line. They got ahead of the free-agency frenzy by acquiring Joe Thuney from the Chiefs for a 2026 fourth-round pick. This was the second move they made to improve the offensive line, having already acquired Jonah Jackson from the Rams for a sixth-round pick earlier.But they didn’t stop there. During free agency, they replaced center Coleman Shelton with ex-Falcons center Drew Dalman. Many viewed Dalman as the top center available on the market. Chicago is finally getting the much-needed protection for Caleb Williams, entering his second season under new head coach Ben Johnson. — Andrew EricksonJustin Fields (QB – NYJ)Justin Fields has been freed from starting status limbo. There’s no question he will be the New York Jets’ starting quarterback for 2025. He is now back in the discussion as a late-round fantasy draft option with top-12 fantasy upside. Last year, during his starting run with Pittsburgh, he was the QB7 in fantasy points per game. He displayed his usual rushing equity, which we should expect to continue this season, with at least 27 rushing yards in five of his six starts (surpassing 50 rushing yards three times). Fields also surprised as a passer, ranking 10th in highly accurate throw rate and 13th-best in off-target rate, per Fantasy Points Data. Fields is a clear winner exiting the free-agent frenzy. — DBroHonorable mention:Matthew Stafford (QB – LAR)Najee Harris (RB – LAC)Najee Harris getting airdropped into an offense that likes to feature one back and lean on the run sounds like a match made in heaven, right? The Los Angeles Chargers could continue to add to this backfield in the draft, but it’s impossible to look at Harris right now as anything but a huge winner from NFL free agency. Harris has been a solid, if not uninspiring, running back over the last two years, as the RB25 and RB30 in fantasy points per game. Last year, among 46 qualifying backs, he ranked 26th in explosive run rate, 15th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 27th in yards after contact per attempt, per Fantasy Points Data. Harris should be considered a strong RB2 right now, with RB1 upside in 2025 if everything breaks his way. — DBroJaylen Warren (RB – PIT)The Pittsburgh Steelers committee backfield has been blown apart. Najee Harris heads to the West Coast as Jaylen Warren returns to the Steelers to lead the way for Arthur Smith’s rushing offense. Warren dealt with knee and hamstring issues last year, which sapped his tackle-breaking ability. Once he was back to close to full health, he looked like the back we have come to love. In Weeks 10-18, among 45 qualifying backs, he ranked 20th in missed tackles forced per attempt and third in yards after contact per attempt, per Fantasy Points Data. Warren looks like the team’s workhorse back for 2025 right now. If that comes to fruition and he avoids a highly drafted back in the NFL Draft, Warren should be viewed as an RB2 with RB1 upside. — DBroGarrett Wilson (WR – NYJ)Garrett Wilson has topped 1,000 receiving yards in his first three NFL seasons, but it still feels as if there’s meat left on the bone. Wilson had to deal with putrid quarterback play in his first two seasons, and last year he had to share targets with Davante Adams, who had established chemistry with quarterback Aaron Rodgers.With Adams leaving via free agency, Wilson is now the New York Jets’ undisputed lead receiver. Even if the Jets sign another receiver via free agency or take one in the draft, Wilson still figures to be the clear No. 1 WR.While it can’t be said that the Jets have made a definitive upgrade at the quarterback position by signing Justin Fields, the quarterback change should bode well for Wilson, since he and Fields played together at Ohio State for two seasons.This could be the year Wilson puts it all together and finishes as a high-end WR1.— Pat FitzmauriceJaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – SEA)Sam Darnold is a competent enough quarterback that I don’t think we need to view the Seattle Seahawks’ offense too differently than we did when Geno Smith was slated to be the starter just a week ago.As I noted in the Seahawks’ outlook portion of my Geno Smith traded to the Raiders reaction article, they want to get back to the basics of running the football and playing defense in 2025.For somebody like Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Darnold is a perfect quarterback for him to dominate the target share. Smith-Njigba had six games with double-digit targets last season and averaged 18.4 half-PPR points per game, good for WR2 last season. Give him volume and he should be a fringe fantasy WR1. The Seahawks will run a lot of two-receiver sets, meaning Smith-Njigba will be competing for opportunities with running backs and tight ends more than other receivers. He should be targeted by Darnold, just as we saw the ex-Vikings quarterback do at times with Justin Jefferson last season.Except in this situation, it won’t stop because the Seahawks don’t have other featured pass-catchers. The current receiver depth chart behind Smith-Njigba includes Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jake Bobo, Dareke Young, Jaelon Darden and Cody White.Now, the Seahawks did make a splashy-headline signing with the addition of Cooper Kupp as the projected No. 2 WR. I think many will look at this as a negative for JSN. But Kupp is way past his prime to consider him a legitimate threat for Smith-Njigba. Kupp has missed an average of six games over the last three seasons.In his last seven games with Los Angeles during the 2024 season, Kupp has had more than three catches twice. JSN had 4-plus catches in 13 games played last season.It’s beyond telling that the Rams opted to spend the money on 32-year-old Davante Adams in free agency, and just flat out release Kupp for nothing after failing to find a trade partner.JSN established himself as the No. 1 in Seattle’s offense in 2024, and exchanging the target competition of Lockett/Metcalf for Kupp/Valdes-Scantling should not be looked at as a downgrade.In conclusion, Seattle’s offense doesn’t project to be “fun” for fantasy football, but Darnold should keep the main fantasy football contributors operating at expectations. He has experience with Klint Kubiak from their time spent in San Fran in 2023, which produced two top-15 fantasy wide receivers. Although I am concerned that Kupp won’t live up to the expectations thrust upon based on his name alone. — Andrew EricksonHonorable mention:Christian Kirk (WR – HOU)Evan Engram (TE – DEN)Evan Engram should be a focal point in the Denver passing attack in 2025, competing weekly with Courtland Sutton for the team lead in targets. When he was a heavily featured asset in an NFL passing attack, Engram was a top-five fantasy tight end. The most recent example of this was in 2023 when he was the TE4 in fantasy points per game while commanding a 23.8% target share (second-best among tight ends). During that season, he lined up in the slot or out wide on 73.9% of his snaps while ranking ninth in yards per route run overall and third in yards per route run versus man coverage among tight ends, per Pro Football Focus (PFF). Engram’s floor is as a rock-solid TE1 in 2025, but his ceiling is finishing this upcoming season as a top-three fantasy option at the position. — DBroBrenton Strange (TE – JAX)No one is going to make Brenton Strange a primary target in fantasy drafts, but the third-year tight end could be in line for a bigger role in the Jacksonville Jaguars passing game and could become consistently fantasy-relevant.The Jaguars let tight ends Evan Engram and Luke Farrell walk in free agency. Over his three seasons in Jacksonville, Engram had 234 catches and 2,094 receiving yards in 43 regular-season games. We can’t automatically project the same sort of numbers for Strange, but it’s worth noting that in the eight games Engram missed last season, Strange had 29 catches for 275 yards and two touchdowns. That’s low-end TE1/high-end TE2 production.A second-round draft pick in 2023, Strange could be a sneaky-good tight end option for fantasy managers in 2025.— Pat FitzmauriceBrock Bowers (TE – LV)The Geno Smith trade is a major boost for incumbents such as Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers. Smith’s calling card is accuracy, with the fifth-highest completion percentage in the NFL last season (70.4%). Per Fantasy Points Data, Smith was also top-12 in accurate ball placement and fifth in catchable throw rate (78.2%).Last season, the Las Vegas Raiders’ cumulative catchable throw rate ranked sixth-worst (72%).In my early 2025 top-12 fantasy tight ends video, I mentioned being bearish on Bowers at his average draft position (ADP) given the question marks about the Raiders’ quarterback situation in 2025. But I’ll be the first to admit that with Smith at the helm, Bowers’ chances of returning his second-round draft capital have increased substantially.— Andrew EricksonAnthony Richardson (QB – IND)Indianapolis Colts general manager Chris Ballard said in February that Anthony Richardson would face an open competition for the starting quarterback job in 2025. Ballard made good on his word by signing Daniel Jones to a one-year, $14 million deal — an amount that suggests Jones has a very real chance to win the job.There’s a case to be made that things could have turned out worse for Richardson. The Colts could have signed Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson — veteran quarterbacks with far better track records than Jones.Still, it’s hard to see the silver lining if you’re holding Richardson in a dynasty league. Even if he’s able to beat out Jones for the Starting job, Richardson is likely to be on a short leash in the regular season.In other bad news for Richardson, the Colts lost two starting offensive linemen in free agency — guard Will Fries and center Ryan Kelly both signed with the Vikings.— Pat FitzmauriceSam Darnold (QB – SEA)Sam Darnold was the fantasy QB9 through 17 weeks on the back of great passing efficiency in Kevin O’Connell’s quarterback-friendly offense. With the Vikings, Darnold posted career-highs across the board, finishing seventh in yards per pass attempt and sixth in completion percentage above expectation (+3.2%).But Darnold’s transition to the Seattle Seahawks presents more challenges than opportunities for fantasy managers to take advantage of. For starters, the supporting cast is a massive downgrade.The Seahawks have undergone significant offensive changes, including the trade of star wide receiver DK Metcalf to the Pittsburgh Steelers and the release of reliable wideout Tyler Lockett.This raises major questions about the quality of Darnold’s receiving options outside of Jaxon Smith-Njigba, potentially impacting his fantasy production, which is heavily dependent on passing efficiency without high-end passing volume.They added Cooper Kupp which is nice, but he has missed an average of six games over the last three seasons. And his production has taken a nose dive, creating doubt about how much he can actually help Darnold (even if he is by default an upgrade based on the current state of the WR room).Seattle’s run-heavy offensive system will also play a crucial role in Darnold’s fantasy outlook, and it’s hard to say it’s anything but another factor he will have to overcome.Klint Kubiak had his moments in New Orleans (the first two weeks), but injuries quickly derailed the Saints’ offense. To his credit, he brought innovation to the Saints’ offense in the use of motion and play action. Marquez Valdes-Scantling (also now with the Seahawks) was a legitimate deep threat despite being signed mid-season. Derek Carr ranked fourth in completion rate over expectation and 11th in EPA (expected points added)/dropback — both superior to Darnold.Darnold also has experience with Kubiak, as they overlapped with the 49ers in 2023.It’s possible that if and when the Seahawks can bolster their offensive line and provide adequate protection, Darnold could perform at a high level. Carr had his moments in this offense last season.But there are too many new/unknown reductions to suggest Darnold can replicate his 2024 efforts. The Vikings were the perfect spot for a quarterback. The Seahawks… are not (even if it’s not the worst).— Andrew EricksonJoe Mixon (RB – HOU)It’s not that the Houston Texans signed a running back who might steal carries from Mixon; it’s that an already feeble Texans offensive line has gotten even weaker.Houston’s offensive line was among the NFL’s worst last season, and it seemed inevitable the Texans would revamp that unit in free agency and the draft. The Texans signed 33-year-old guard Laken Tomlinson. But they also traded away two starting linemen, sending tackle Laremy Tunsil to the Commanders and guard Kenyon Green to the Eagles.Tunsil was guilty of too many false-start penalties last year, but he was also far and away the best offensive lineman the Texans had — and arguably their only above-average lineman.The Texans could still sign another lineman or two in free agency. They could also bolster their offensive line via the draft. Still, it’s alarming that Houston’s offensive line has gotten worse so far this offseason.A weak offensive line bodes ill for Mixon’s chances of remaining a top fantasy running back. It’s also going to make it difficult for Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud to rebound from a disappointing 2024 season in which he faced the highest pressure rate of any quarterback in the league.— Pat FitzmauriceRico Dowdle (RB – CAR)This is a nightmare landing spot for Rico Dowdle, with entrenched starter Chuba Hubbard still slated to lead the way for Carolina’s ground game in 2025. Last year, after Week 11, once Dowdle became the Dallas Cowboys’ workhorse (60% or higher snaps in each game), he was the RB18 in fantasy points per game, averaging 22 touches and 108 total yards per game. Dowdle isn’t seeing anywhere close to that role in 2025. He now enters the high-end handcuff conversation this season, which is a massive value dip for a back that could have easily posted RB2 numbers again this year had he returned to Dallas. — DBroGeorge Pickens (WR – PIT)Some headwinds were keeping George Pickens from reaching his fantasy potential last season. The Steelers had the NFL’s fifth run-heaviest offense in 2024. With Justin Fields and Russell Wilson at quarterback, the Steelers ranked 26th in passing yardage and 20th in completion percentage. But at least Pickens was Pittsburgh’s undisputed No. 1 receiver.That’s no longer the case.The Steelers acquired DK Metcalf in a trade with the Seahawks. Metcalf has had three 1,000-yard seasons and has never finished with fewer than 900 yards in any of his six NFL campaigns. Pickens hasn’t been the most mature fellow early in his NFL career. It will be interesting to see how he reacts in games where Metcalf earns significantly more targets. For that matter, Metcalf has occasionally expressed displeasure when he felt as if he wasn’t getting enough targets. It will be interesting to see if these two — who have both worn jersey No. 14, by the way – can play nicely together. (It was announced Metcalf would wear jersey No. 4 with the Steelers)Pittsburgh has also failed to resolve its quarterback situation. Fields and Wilson both became free agents. Fields has signed with the New York Jets. Wilson remains unsigned but has met with the Cleveland Browns and was scheduled to meet with the New York Giants.With added target competition and an uncertain quarterback situation, Pickens’ fantasy stock has fallen.— Pat FitzmauriceJalen McMillan (WR – TB)There was a chance Jalen McMillan was going to enter the 2025 season as the undisputed No. 2 WR in the Buccaneers’ offense. Alas, try as the Patriots did to pry Chris Godwin away from the state of Florida, they were unsuccessful (despite an offer of nearly $20 million more).Godwin signed a three-year, $66 million contract extension with $44 million guaranteed with Tampa Bay.This makes McMillan’s path to volume a much steeper hill to climb, although this won’t go unnoticed by his dip in 2025 fantasy football ADP. The former Washington Huskies wideout wasn’t much of a factor to start the season when Godwin was on an absolute tear.But I don’t hate the idea of buying the dip on a talented young receiver like McMillan. Mike Evans will be turning 32 this season. McMillan can play inside/outside and Godwin is coming off a serious ankle injury. — Andrew EricksonHonorable mention: Rashod Bateman (WR – BAL)Ben Sinnott (TE – WAS)I was hoping that after getting his rookie season squashed by Zach Ertz, Ben Sinnott could be heading for the Trey McBride breakout sophomore season campaign. Sadly, that doesn’t look to be in Sinnott’s cards, with Ertz returning as a trusted weapon for Jayden Daniels. I’ll keep the light on for Sinnott in dynasty as he remains a young and very talented player, but for his 2025 redraft value (assuming Ertz stays healthy), this has been a worst-case scenario realized. — DBroMark Andrews (TE – BAL)If the newly acquired DeAndre Hopkins captures any substantial role for the Baltimore Ravens in 2025, I’d imagine it’s in the red zone. This would be bad news for Mark Andrews, considering how touchdown-dependent he was last season.Andrews scored as many times (11) as his previous two seasons combined. There are a lot of red flags for the 29-year-old entering the final year of his contract. Isaiah Likely is breathing down his neck for targets in the tight end room and Andrews has been heavily rumored as a potential salary cap casualty. — Andrew EricksonSubscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneInAndrew Erickson |
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Andrew Erickson is a fantasy football analyst at FantasyPros.© Copyright 2010- FantasyPros.com
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