France’s Bayrou fights to stay prime minister – POLITICO Europe
Widely considered President Macron’s last hope, François Bayrou faces a key vote in parliament on Wednesday. PARIS — The biggest day of François Bayrou’s decades-long political career has arrived.His government’s fate is in the hands of the members of the French parliament, as they vote Wednesday on the first of several no-confidence motions expected to be put forward against the centrist prime minister. It’s only two months since they brought down his predecessor.If he falls, Bayrou would earn the ignominious distinction of being the shortest-lived premier in modern French history. He would also leave the country without a budget at a time when investors are questioning whether France can credibly repay its debts. And he would exacerbate fears that Europe’s second-largest economy has become ungovernable, just as the Germany economy is stuck in neutral and the continent faces a potential trade war with the United States.Heading into Wednesday, Bayrou had reason to be cautiously optimistic, as several parties had signaled that they may not vote to topple his government.But Bayrou is widely seen as President Emmanuel Macron’s last hope of finding a solution to France’s political crisis. The 73-year old has been at the center of French politics for a generation, a respected heavyweight with a history of working with politicians from across France’s fractured political landscape.Wednesday’s vote will be the highest-profile test of his political acumen, and the stakes couldn’t be higher.“If Bayrou fails, the markets will interpret his downfall as proof that no one else can succeed,” said OpinionWay pollster Bruno Jeanbart.“He’s a centrist, so if he can’t reach a compromise, who can?”Wednesday’s vote in the National Assembly, the lower house of parliament, comes after Bayrou used a constitutional maneuver to enact parts of his 2025 spending plans without a vote. However, the measure — Article 49.3 of the constitution — allows lawmakers to respond by bringing forward no-confidence motions.Bayrou’s minority government, which is expected to employ 49.3 four times to get its budget passed, is supported by a loose coalition of centrist and conservative politicians. To survive all those no-confidence votes, it needs some part of the opposition to abstain from voting to censure the government.“Bayrou is a shopkeeper whose aim has always been to maximize the position of his own [centrist] party,” said a former government adviser, who was granted anonymity to protect relationships. “His aim here is to survive, or at least survive longer than Barnier.”But Bayrou’s future may be determined by the shifting political winds in France rather than by anything he has done. After Barnier’s downfall in December, public opinion in favor of toppling the government has ebbed, recent polls show.Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party is set to make its decision on whether to grant Bayrou a stay of execution at the last minute. On Tuesday, the party’s president, Jordan Bardella, said he believed it was important “to avoid uncertainty” that might have “serious consequences for the economy.”All eyes on are on Socialist lawmakers, as Bayrou had targeted the Socialists as a potential partner in the opposition. Though the party has voiced its opposition to Bayrou’s proposed €53 billion in tax hikes and spending cuts, it has vowed not to bring him down over the budget.The price the prime minister paid was steep: Bayrou agreed to reopen talks on Macron’s flagship pensions reform, albeit in a limited manner, and rowed back some spending cuts.But whether the entire Socialist party will fall in line is an open question. Last month, eight Socialist MPs broke ranks and voted alongside their hard-left allies to bring Bayrou down.Then there’s the fact that Wednesday’s no-confidence motion is only one front in the battle Bayrou has to win in the coming days.In a bizarre turn of events, the Socialists have put forward their own censorship motion over what they believe is Bayrou’s refusal to uphold “republican values” — a shot at the prime minister over controversial comments he made on immigration last week.While the National Rally is unlikely to vote for a measure criticizing comments on immigration that align with far-right rhetoric, the party isn’t ruling it out on principle. The National Rally would have no qualms about voting for a no-confidence motion even if it disagrees with its wording, someone close to Le Pen who was granted anonymity to speak candidly about party strategy told POLITICO.Should Bayrou navigate these hurdles, he may be able to help open up the French political landscape, which has been deeply divided among the far right; centrists and conservatives stuck in marriage of convenience; and the New Popular Front, an alliance of parties on the left that came together during Macron’s hastily called snap election last year.By getting the Socialists on side, Bayrou would create a major fissure between the center-left party and their partners in the hard-left France Unbowed party.France Unbowed’s firebrand leader, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, and his allies have repeatedly criticized the Socialists for negotiating with the government. Mélenchon said on Tuesday that should the Socialists refuse to vote to censure the government on Wednesday in response to its budget plans, there would be no place for the party within the New Popular Front.The decision by the National Rally gives Bayrou some breathing room.U.S. president faces outrage from Arab countries and key European capitals over his “dangerous” proposal that Palestinians should be removed from the coastal enclave. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz warns Trump not to take territory by force as EU leaders prepare to discuss Greenland tensions at a Feb. 3 summit. François Bayrou sparked a wave of indignation with comment that France is suffering from “flooding” by immigrants.
