Final Oscar Voting Begins: How ‘Anora’ and Sean Baker Became the New Frontrunners – Variety

Awards Circuit Column: Neon’s Palme d’Or winner could clinch the Academy’s top prize after winning the PGA, DGA and Critics Choice Awards.
By

Clayton Davis
Senior Awards Editor
The final Oscar voting period has begun, and the year of multiple contenders has finally found its frontrunner.
For months, Hollywood has searched for its strongest best picture candidate. Now, with a sweep at the Critics Choice, Directors Guild of America and Producers Guild of America awards, Sean Baker’s “Anora” has emerged as the film to beat. The one-two punch of a DGA and PGA win has historically been a strong indicator of Oscar success. Since the co-existence of both guilds in 1994, only six films have lost best picture at the Oscars after securing both prizes: “Apollo 13” (1995), “Saving Private Ryan” (1998), “Brokeback Mountain” (2005), “Gravity” (2013), “La La Land” (2016) and “1917” (2019).

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The $6 million indie about an outer-borough sex worker has stood out in a field of blockbusters, biopics and musicals. It’s one of only two Oscar nominees with a perfect precursor record, earning nominations from every major guild and securing key Oscar nods. The other is “Emilia Pérez,” the most-nominated film of the year, which had seemed to be in pole position. But its Oscar chances collapsed after offensive tweets from its star, Karla Sofía Gascón, resurfaced, plunging its campaign into chaos.

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At its core, “Anora” is an easy film for industry voters to rally behind. Best picture winners can’t just be admired — they must be loved. “The Brutalist,” a 215-minute examination of art, commerce and the immigrant experience, was once considered a heavyweight contender thanks to Brady Corbet’s ambitious vision. But its momentum has stalled, with reports indicating many Academy members haven’t watched or finished it. Oscar voters favor engaging films that are also entertaining. That’s something the fresh and funny “Anora” offers in spades.
Baker himself adds to the appeal. A guerrilla-style auteur, he made his mark with 2015’s “Tangerine,” the no-budget indie famously shot on three iPhones. Then, he stayed true to his maverick roots, exploring marginalized communities in “The Florida Project” and “Red Rocket.” But he hasn’t been embraced by the industry until now. “Anora” made him a DGA Award and Palme d’Or winner, as well as a four-time Oscar nominee. His underdog narrative, rising from micro-budget filmmaking to Academy acclaim, plays right into Hollywood’s favorite kind of success story.

Beyond that, Baker has championed theatrical releases, a cause that resonates in an industry struggling to adjust to streamers’ dominance. Even when things were breaking “Emilia Pérez’s” way, that film had to contend with antipathy toward Netflix, which has yet to capture best picture for a reason.
Awards pundits have long categorized films as either the Big Oscar Movie (a flashy period drama or a historical biopic) or the little movie that could. But “Anora” doesn’t fit neatly into either box.
Baker’s darkly comic, profoundly human story has struck a chord in a politically charged moment — an era when the billionaire class is literally reshaping our government. The film juxtaposes the absurdity of Russian oligarchs with the raw reality of a sex worker’s shattered dreams. While it nods to rom-coms like “Pretty Woman,” it also subverts the idea of a fairy-tale ending. Mikey Madison’s lead character dreamed that a Prince Charming would transform her existence. The film’s finale, a haunting image of Madison lying against Yura Borisov’s chest in a foggy car while waiting to resume her old life, lingers long after the credits roll. For Baker, there are no happily-ever-afters.
At least until Oscar night, when this indie upstart could emerge as the big winner.
Final Oscar voting is open from Feb. 11 at 9 a.m. PT until Feb. 18 at 5 p.m. PT. The updated predictions are below.
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Source: https://variety.com/2025/film/awards/anora-oscars-frontrunner-final-voting-begins-1236303199/