‘Emilia Pérez’ plummets to 4th place in Oscar odds amid Karla Sofía Gascón mess – Gold Derby

GoldDerbyWhat a difference a week makes.When the Oscars nominations came out on the morning of Jan. 23, Emilia Pérez dominated the field with a record 13 bids (the most ever for a non-English language film). Many awards pundits thought the French musical dramedy from acclaimed filmmaker Jacques Audiard could go all the way and win Best Picture, and Gold Derby’s official odds on Jan. 24 reflected that. At the time, Emilia Pérez stood in second place behind only Brady Corbet‘s The Brutalist.However, after multiple scandals involving lead actress Karla Sofía Gascón erupted, Emilia Pérez has now tumbled down to fourth place in our Best Picture rankings. Gascón (who made history as the first openly trans actress to receive an Oscar bid) first accused “people working with” her co-nominee Fernanda Torres of “tearing [Gascón] down.” She then deleted her X account after offensive social media posts from the past five years were uncovered. Despite multiple apologies from Gascón, her costar Zoe Saldaña publicly distanced herself, saying Gascón’s racist and Islamophobic commentary “makes me sad.”

There was additional fallout in terms of Emilia Pérez‘s Oscar chances: the Netflix film dropped from second place to third place in Best Adapted Screenplay, behind Conclave and A Complete Unknown. And Audiard tumbled to third place for Best Director, behind Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) and Sean Baker (Anora). However, Emilia Pérez currently holds steady in all of its other races, including Saldaña still in first place in Best Supporting Actress, and the film is still projected to win Best International Film and Best Song (“El Mal”). Gascón remains in last place in Best Actress.Below are the current Oscar winner predictions for all of the categories in which Emilia Pérez is competing, updated on Feb. 1, with predicted winners denoted in gold.SEE Make your Oscar predictions right now — it’s fun and easy!1. The Brutalist — 5/1
2. Anora — 7/1
3. Conclave — 15/2
4. Emilia Pérez — 8/1
5. Wicked — 17/2
6. A Complete Unknown — 9/1
7. The Substance — 23/2
8. I’m Still Here — 23/2
9. Dune: Part Two — 14/1
10. Nickel Boys — 18/11. Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) — 31/20
2. Sean Baker (Anora) — 5/1
3. Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez) — 5/1
4. Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) — 6/1
5. James Mangold (A Complete Unknown) — 13/2

1. Demi Moore (The Substance) — 19/10
2. Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) — 31/10
3. Mikey Madison (Anora) — 9/2
4. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) — 13/2
5. Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez) — 17/21. Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) — 83/50
2. Ariana Grande (Wicked) — 37/10
3. Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) — 6/1
4. Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) — 6/1
5. Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown) — 15/21. Conclave — 13/8
2. A Complete Unknown — 9/2
3. Emilia Pérez — 5/1
4. Sing Sing — 6/1
5. Nickel Boys — 7/11. The Brutalist — 7/4
2. Dune: Part Two — 37/10
3. Nosferatu — 9/2
4. Emilia Pérez — 13/2
5. Maria — 8/11. Conclave — 53/20
2. The Brutalist — 10/3
3. Emilia Pérez — 4/1
4. Anora — 9/2
5. Wicked — 15/21. The Substance — 7/4
2. Wicked — 37/10
3. A Different Man — 5/1
4. Nosferatu — 6/1
5. Emilia Pérez — 8/11. The Brutalist — 9/5
2. Conclave — 69/20
3. Emilia Pérez — 11/2
4. The Wild Robot — 6/1
5. Wicked — 7/11. Emilia Pérez (“El Mal”) — 9/5
2. The Six Triple Eight (“The Journey”) — 4/1
3. Emilia Pérez (“Mi Camino”) — 5/1
4. Sing Sing (“Like a Bird”) — 6/1
5. Elton John: Never Too Late (“Never Too Late”) — 13/21. Wicked — 23/10
2. Dune: Part Two — 29/10
3. A Complete Unknown — 4/1
4. Emilia Pérez — 6/1
5. The Wild Robot — 17/2

1. Emilia Pérez — 11/5
2. I’m Still Here — 49/20
3. The Seed of the Sacred Fig — 11/2
4. Flow — 13/2
5. The Girl With the Needle — 17/2Gold Derby’s Oscar odds are based on the combined forecasts of experts we’ve polled from major media outlets, editors who cover awards year-round for this website, top 24 users who had the best accuracy scores last year, and the mass of users who make up our biggest predictions bloc. As of today, more than 7,200 people have chimed in with their picks. Track the awards races by exploring all of our charts and graphs, and be sure to sound off in our forums.SIGN UP for Gold Derby’s free newsletter with latest predictionsTransphobia doing whatever it can to smear the success of this film. Sadly all these past mistakes keep getting dragged up conveniently during voting.“Past mistakes”: 2020 to 2024……Gimme a break..This has nothing to do with transphobia. She did this to herself, and things of this nature have certainly come back to haunt straight white males as well. She messed up royally, and she still has yet to address the specific posts. Don’t blame it on transphobia – in this instance, that is not what’s going on.This film is an abhorrent representation of the trans experience. I Saw The TV Glow is much better, and directed by a trans person.This is sickening to me, the eagerness and speed with which gascon is judged, and with no nominations for my fave perfs and films, this Oscar season is irrelevant to me.
Besides, I have a problem condemning people for defending themselves and telling the truth, in spite of how crude the words.I’d really like to see more love for “A Complete Unknown.”Hahahaha. The little boy actor pretending he used his own vocals for the film, when it’s known throughout the industry that Bob Dylan himself gave production his permission to use all/ any tracks for the film A Complete Unknown. … A Complete JOKE.!!!Emilia Perez: it took me a while to understand the movie. It’s constructed according to a classical Greek tragedy. The spoken word tells the tragedy of the drug lord, the sung word tells the tragedy of the Mexicans affected by the drug trade, and Rita is the storyteller and glue between the two. It’s brilliant!I don’t see what any of this has to do with a person’s acting skills/abilities. Isn’t that what the Oscars are about? Has it instead become about passing judgment on a person’s personal opinions?Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *Comment * Name * Email * Website

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What has the edge in Best Picture? Can Fernanda Torres take down Demi Moore? Awards Magnet hosts Christopher Rosen and Joyce Eng make their first Oscar winner predictions in above-the-line categories with Gold Derby editor-in-chief Debra Birnbaum. Click the photo above to watch the video.
Watch our chats with Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) and many more 2025 Oscar nominees…Take a trip back to the Academy Awards ceremonies of the recent past with Gold Derby’s Oscars Playback series. Hosts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen recap every Oscar ceremony of the 1990s and 2000s. Joyce and Chris tackle the highs and lows of each show and see how the winners aged. It’s a wonderful night for Oscar, whenever you watch!
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