What Happens If Asteroid 2024 YR4 Strikes Earth — And Why We Can’t ‘Nuke’ It – Forbes
An asteroid between about 130 and 300 ft. (40 and 90 meters) in diameter has been given a 2.3% chance of it hitting Earth on Dec. 22, 2032. Here’s what would happen if it hits — and why using nuclear bombs to deflect it is unlikely.A global view looking ‘down’ on Earth and the Moon, onto the plane of the Ecliptic and the possible … [+] position of asteroid 20204 YR4 on Dec. 22, 2032. This graphic was prepared by the team at the Near-Earth Object Coordination Centre at ESA’s ESRIN establishment near Rome.Asteroid 2024 YR4 is on a path toward Earth. While the chances of impact remain uncertain, if it were to hit, it would do so at a blistering velocity of 10.6 miles (17 kilometers) per second — about 38,028 miles (61,200 kilometers) per hour. An impact — though more likely an airburst explosion in the Earth’s atmosphere — would be equivalent to around eight million tons of TNT, or 500 times the power of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima, according to Wired.If it does strike Earth, it will do so on Dec. 22, 2032, with the “risk corridor” calculated to be across the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia, according to IAWN.350 observations of 2024 YR4 have been made so far by astronomers at over 50 observatories since the International Asteroid Warning Network issued a rare warning on Jan. 29, 2025. It won’t be until late 2028, when 2024 YR4 approaches Earth next time that astronomers will get another view of it.“Probably the nearest parallel we have in kind of recorded history would be the Tunguska event rather in 1908,” said Dr Richard J. Wilman, Department of Physics, Durham University, in an interview. “An object about 100 meters in diameter entered the Earth’s atmosphere and exploded as an airburst, destroying 2,000 square kilometers of Siberian forest.” As Wilman points out, that’s roughly the area within the M25 motorway around London.Stony asteroids — which 2024 YR4 likely is — tend to explode before they strike Earth. If it’s made of harder stuff, then it could strike Earth and cause a crater. “It depends on the type of asteroid, but as a rule of thumb, the size of a crater is about 20 times the size of the impacting body,” said Wilman. “So if you had a 100 meter diameter asteroid, that will give you a crater diameter of two kilometers.”There’s obviously a wide range of scenarios, most of which have 2024 YR4 not hitting Earth at all. However, the planetary defense community will now have to think about them all, from cities being struck to tsunamis caused either by an impact or an airburst. However, if 2024 YR4 was to directly strike a desert, or explode over the ocean, there would be zero effects.NASA’s first mission to test planetary defense technology, the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), resulted in a successful impact with asteroid Dimorphos on Sept. 26, 2022, which changed its orbit. Can we do the same with 2024 YR4? It’s a possibility in 2028. If it is a rubble-type asteroid, a kinetic impact could make the situation worse. “The moment you impact it, it starts falling apart, and then instead of having a single rock of 40 meters or 50 meters, you may have multiple rocks of smaller size — and you cannot predict what will happen to all these smaller pieces,” said Luca Conversi, NEO Coordination Centre Manager and NEOMIR Study Scientist at the European Space Agency’s ESRIN site in Frascati, Italy, in an interview.That would be the least effective, most dangerous solution to be used only in a last resort. “There are two problems with a nuclear bomb,” said Conversi. “First of all, it was never tested.” There is also a huge political implication. “If we launched a DART-like spacecraft and it fails, tough luck, but what if the launch is carrying a nuclear bomb and it explodes in the higher atmosphere?” said Conversi. “You’re taking a risk, and you want to be sure that the risk you are taking is worth the effort.”One Community. Many Voices. Create a free account to share your thoughts. Our community is about connecting people through open and thoughtful conversations. We want our readers to share their views and exchange ideas and facts in a safe space.In order to do so, please follow the posting rules in our site’s Terms of Service. We’ve summarized some of those key rules below. Simply put, keep it civil.Your post will be rejected if we notice that it seems to contain:User accounts will be blocked if we notice or believe that users are engaged in:So, how can you be a power user?Thanks for reading our community guidelines. Please read the full list of posting rules found in our site’s Terms of Service.
