Bleacher Report’s Expert AFC and NFC Championship NFL Picks – Bleacher Report
We’re down to the home stretch, and it’s time to cash in on the conference championship games.Bleacher Report NFL analysts Brad Gagnon, Gary Davenport, Brent Sobleski and Maurice Moton, along with editors Wes O’Donnell and Ian Hanford and Vince Michelino from B/R Betting, are feeling confident with two high-stakes games coming up this weekend.Thanks to the reigning champion Kansas City Chiefs and a couple of underdogs, the panel went 3-0 on consensus picks for the divisional round, improving to 7-1 for the playoffs.Riding high into the last January weekend of playoff football, our experts took a favorite and an underdog against the spread for the championship games. They laid out their analysis with individual score predictions.First, check out our ATS records, injury reports for each team and some pertinent facts about the matchups.ATS Playoff StandingsT-1. Gagnon: 7-2-1T-1. Hanford: 7-2-1T-3. Davenport: 6-3-1T-3. Moton: 6-3-1T-3. O’Donnell: 6-3-1T-6. Knox: 5-4-1T-6. Sobleski: 5-4-18. Michelino: 4-5-1Consensus picks: 7-1Lines are from DraftKings as of Wednesday, Jan. 22, at 4 p.m. ET. Check DraftKings for the latest odds info. Information on public betting trends is courtesy of the Action Network. ATS records are provided by Team Rankings. Washington Commanders injuries to watch: Last Saturday, Commanders right guard Sam Cosmi tore his ACL, which is a significant blow to quarterback Jayden Daniels’ interior pass protection and the team’s ground game. Linebacker Bobby Wagner didn’t practice because of an ankle injury last week, but he still played 100 percent of the defensive snaps against the Detroit Lions in the divisional round.Philadelphia Eagles injuries to watch: Quarterback Jalen Hurts is the name to monitor on the Eagles injury report. He’s dealing with a knee issue. Head coach Nick Sirianni told reporters that Hurts will be on the field for walkthroughs to start the practice week. Tight end Dallas Goedert dealt with an illness that limited him at practice last week, but he played against the Los Angeles Rams in the divisional round, catching four passes for a team-leading 56 yards.In a nutshell: Since their Week 5 bye, the Eagles have gone on an incredible run, winning 14 out of their last 15 games, though they lost that one game to the Commanders. Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts exited in the first quarter of that contest with the Commanders because of a concussion, which sidelined him for two weeks.The Commanders haven’t lost a game since November, winning seven straight, four of those outings on the road. They’re comfortable in hostile environments, and poised rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels leads their offense, which is averaging 31.3 points during the team’s winning streak.Random tidbit: The Eagles and Commanders have squared off once in the playoffs. In 1991, Washington went on the road to beat Philadelphia 20-6 at Veterans Stadium.Davenport: The fan in me wants the Commanders to win this game. For Jayden Daniels’ electrifying rookie season to continue all the way to a berth in Super Bowl LIX. For a No. 6 seed to get a shot at the Lombardi.But Washington allowed 137.5 rushing yards per game in the regular season—the third-highest mark in the league. In last week’s upset of the Lions, the Commanders surrendered over 200 yards on the ground and over eight yards per carry.Philadelphia’s passing attack may have sputtered over the last month or so, but Saquon Barkley just broke another franchise record last week, setting a new high-water mark for rushing yards in a playoff game. The Eagles probably aren’t going to gift Washington five turnovers like the Lions did. And Washington’s deficiencies against the run are just a killer.If the Philadelphia passing attack does get going Sunday, this game could be a rout. But just an average game from Hurts and another huge game from Barkley (who had 150 yards on the ground the last time these teams met) will end Washington’s Cinderella run and send the Eagles on to New Orleans.Eagles 31, Commanders 20Gagnon: There’s something special going on with this Washington team, which has made major strides since falling to the Eagles in Philly in Week 11. If you can dominate the Lions like that on the road, you can absolutely beat a familiar and similarly talented Philadelphia team. Jayden Daniels played Philadelphia well this season, and I actually trust him right now a lot more than Jalen Hurts. Plus, the Washington defense is supporting him to the max. I’ll still give the more experienced Eagles a close win at home, but this could go either way, and the spread is definitely too high.Eagles 24, Commanders 23Knox: I expect an extremely tight game and won’t be shocked if the Commanders win outright. Confidence is a dangerous asset, and Washington rightfully has plenty of it. This game won’t be too big for the Commanders or rookie star Jayden Daniels, who will be the best QB on the field, even if Jalen Hurts is at 100 percent.Washington won the last time these NFC East rivals met, though Kenny Pickett was under center for Philly for most of the game. I doubt we’ll see Pickett in Round 3—though Hurts’ knee ailment does loom large—and the Eagles might have the most complete team in the entire tournament. I don’t expect them to be caught off-guard, as the Lions seemed to be a week ago.Barring a cascade of turnovers, home-field advantage, a focused defense and a heavy dose of Saquon Barkley should be enough to get Philadelphia a ticket to Super Bowl LIX. Unlike the Ravens, the Eagles know to lean on their superstar back when the situation calls for it. Against Washington’s 30th-ranked run defense, it will.Eagles 28, Commanders 24Moton: The Commanders’ underdog story is a phenomenal one. They went from being one of the league’s worst teams from ownership to the roster last year to the conference championship game with rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, who’s advanced beyond his years.But the Commanders are more than a cute NFL rags-to-riches story. They’re a legitimate Super Bowl contender with Daniels’ dynamic playmaking ability and head coach Dan Quinn developing a no-fear aggressive culture in Washington.The Commanders have one major problem, which they must address in the offseason, though. They’re not strong enough in the defensive trenches to stop a downhill rushing offense. The Eagles averaged 219.5 rushing yards against them in two regular-season matchups, scoring five touchdowns on the ground.Even with quarterback Jalen Hurts at less than 100 percent, the Eagles can rely on Saquon Barkley to get them across the finish line with a victory. Still, the Commanders will do just enough to cover the 5.5-point spread.Eagles 27, Commanders 23Other Expert PicksHanford: CommandersMichelino: EaglesO’Donnell: CommandersSobleski: CommandersBuffalo Bills injuries to watch: Last week, the Bills had a long injury list, though everyone on it except running back Ray Davis (concussion protocol) went through a full practice by the end of the week. Davis passed concussion protocol and suited up against the Baltimore Ravens, recording four carries for 29 yards and a touchdown.Kansas City Chiefs injuries to watch: The Chiefs head into Sunday’s game mostly healthy. On Wednesday, head coach Andy Reid told reporters the team won’t activate wide receiver Mecole Hardman from injured reserve. Hardman has been out of action since Week 14 because of a knee injury.In a nutshell: After three consecutive divisional-round losses, two of them to the Chiefs, the Bills have advanced to the AFC Conference Championship Game for the first time since the 2020 campaign.With Josh Allen as their starting quarterback, the Bills are 4-1 against the Chiefs in the regular season, but they have lost in all three postseason matchups against Kansas City. Fittingly, Buffalo must beat its biggest playoff nemesis to reach Super Bowl LIX.The Chiefs will look to advance to the Super Bowl for the fifth time in six years, and a historic three-peat is within their reach.Random tidbit: These are two of the most efficient teams this season. The Bills come into this contest with the fewest turnovers (eight), and the Chiefs haven’t turned the ball over since they lost to Buffalo in Week 11. Kansas City is tied for the fourth-fewest turnovers (14). This matchup could come down to one crucial mistake by either team.Hanford: I hope I’m wrong and Josh Allen gets it done on the road, but this just feels like the Chiefs’ game to lose. The Bills have been a different team away from Buffalo this season. All four losses have been away from home. Their defense has been significantly worse on the road. And even Josh Allen hasn’t been as good away from the confines of his home stadium.I see Steve Spagnuolo dialing up everything he can to slow down Allen, and without a true No. 1 WR in Buffalo, I don’t envision a ton of explosive plays from the Bills offense. Offensively, the Chiefs looked as they have all season against Houston, but they’ve never scored fewer than 25 points in two straight playoff games in Patrick Mahomes’ career. Referee narrative nonsense aside, this game likely comes down to a handful of plays, and I like the Chiefs to continue to rise in those moments.Chiefs 26, Bills 23Michelino: It felt like we were always destined to arrive right back here with these two, now for the fourth time in their recent playoff history with Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.The Bills and Allen are on a special run, both in record and performance ATS. But it’s fair to question if they have what it takes to dethrone the Chiefs in their building. Considering that Buffalo is up against Mahomes, a superior defense and getting little extra help over the top, it’s hard to see the Bills pulling this upset off. I’ll be rooting for Josh Allen, but my money is on history repeating itself with Andy and Mahomes.Chiefs 24, Bills 20O’Donnell: Buffalo handed Kansas City its only meaningful loss of this season. The facts, as they are, though, have the Josh Allen-led Bills 4-1 against Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs in the regular season, but 0-3 in the postseason throughout their careers.From the gut, I struggle to rationalize the potential thought of looking back at this era of football and seeing Allen winless in the postseason against Mahomes. Sure, there’s plenty more time in their careers, but it’s also really damn difficult to do what the Chiefs are endeavoring to do this season.Only three teams have ever made three straight Super Bowl appearances. I’ll side with history in the making by giving Allen his first, legitimate signature win. And even if I’m wrong, I’ll gladly take that point-and-a-half as insurance, because if the Bills don’t prevail, the Chiefs are only winning by the skin of their teeth.Bills 30, Chiefs 27Sobleski: At this point, no one should bet against the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes. But here we are. The Bills, specifically quarterback Josh Allen, have never played better. Buffalo has the better overall roster. Allen is one of the few quarterbacks who can go punch-for-punch with Mahomes.When these two teams met earlier this year, the Bills emerged victorious. Now, some might argue that the previous meeting was held in Buffalo. True. However, a balmy Sunday evening in Kansas City may actually favor Buffalo for the reasons previously stated. Cold and snow won’t be a huge factor. The Bills are good enough to execute at a high level and knock off the Chiefs, thus ruining Kansas City’s run toward a three-peat.Bills 27, Chiefs 24Other Expert PicksDavenport: ChiefsGagnon: BillsKnox: ChiefsMoton: ChiefsIf you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL).Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), or call or text the TN REDLINE: 800-889-9789 (TN).21+. NJ/PA/WV/IN/IA/CO/IL/TN only. 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