2025 Oscar winner predictions: ‘The Brutalist’ takes the early lead in these 5 categories – Gold Derby

GoldDerbySince the Oscars nominations were announced on Thursday, 4,000 people have already made their winner predictions at Gold Derby. At this initial stage, The Brutalist is the one to beat, with five forecasted wins: picture, director, actor, cinematographer, and score. Brady Corbet‘s period piece about a Holocaust survivor (Adrien Brody) who hopes to achieve the American Dream received 10 total bids, as did Wicked, while the nominations leader was Emilia Pérez at 13.Other films with impressive nom tallies on Thursday were A Complete Unknown (eight), Conclave (eight), Anora (six), Dune: Part Two (five), The Substance (five), and Nosferatu (four). See the complete list of nominations.

The four acting winners are currently expected to play out like this: Brody for actor, Demi Moore (The Substance) for actress, Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) for supporting actress, and Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) for supporting actor. But the odds could change depending on what happens at pivotal precursor ceremonies like the Critics Choice Awards (Feb. 7), the BAFTAs (Feb. 16), and the Screen Actors Guild Awards (Feb. 23).Below, see a snapshot in time of our winner predictions for the 2025 Oscars in all 23 categories, updated on Jan. 24. Our predicted winners are denoted in gold. Conan O’Brien will host the 97th annual Academy Awards on March 2.SEE Make your Oscar predictions right now — it’s fun and easy!Gold Derby’s Oscar odds are based on the combined forecasts of experts we’ve polled from major media outlets, editors who cover awards year-round for this website, top 24 users who had the best accuracy scores last year, and the mass of users who make up our biggest predictions bloc. Track the awards races by exploring all of our charts and graphs, and be sure to sound off in our forums.1. The Brutalist — 11/2
2. Emilia Pérez — 13/2
3. Anora — 15/2
4. Conclave — 8/1
5. Wicked — 17/2
6. A Complete Unknown — 17/2
7. The Substance — 12/1
8. I’m Still Here — 13/1
9. Dune: Part Two — 15/1
10. Nickel Boys — 18/11. Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) — 8/5
2. Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez) — 39/10
3. Sean Baker (Anora) — 5/1
4. Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) — 13/2
5. James Mangold (A Complete Unknown) — 8/1

1. Demi Moore (The Substance) — 21/10
2. Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) — 16/5
3. Mikey Madison (Anora) — 4/1
4. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) — 7/1
5. Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez) — 15/21. Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) — 11/5
2. Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) — 27/10
3. Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) — 9/2
4. Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) — 7/1
5. Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) — 17/21. Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) — 31/20
2. Ariana Grande (Wicked) — 39/10
3. Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) — 6/1
4. Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) — 6/1
5. Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown) — 15/21. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) — 83/50
2. Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) — 4/1
3. Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown) — 9/2
4. Yura Borisov (Anora) — 7/1
5. Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) — 8/11. Conclave — 31/20
2. Emilia Pérez — 9/2
3. A Complete Unknown — 5/1
4. Sing Sing — 13/2
5. Nickel Boys — 15/21. Anora — 17/10
2. The Brutalist — 39/10
3. The Substance — 9/2
4. A Real Pain — 6/1
5. September 5 — 9/11. The Brutalist — 8/5
2. Dune: Part Two — 9/2
3. Nosferatu — 5/1
4. Emilia Pérez — 6/1
5. Maria — 15/21. Wicked — 3/2
2. Nosferatu — 4/1
3. Gladiator II — 6/1
4. Conclave — 13/2
5. A Complete Unknown — 7/11. Conclave — 51/20
2. The Brutalist — 31/10
3. Emilia Pérez — 39/10
4. Anora — 11/2
5. Wicked — 15/2

1. The Substance — 17/10
2. Wicked — 19/5
3. A Different Man — 11/2
4. Nosferatu — 6/1
5. Emilia Pérez — 15/21. Wicked — 7/4
2. The Brutalist — 69/20
3. Dune: Part Two — 5/1
4. Conclave — 13/2
5. Nosferatu — 15/21. The Brutalist — 46/25
2. Conclave — 37/10
3. Emilia Pérez — 9/2
4. The Wild Robot — 13/2
5. Wicked — 7/11. Emilia Pérez (“El Mal”) — 83/50
2. The Six Triple Eight (“The Journey”) — 39/10
3. Emilia Pérez (“Mi Camino”) — 5/1
4. Sing Sing (“Like a Bird”) — 13/2
5. Elton John: Never Too Late (“Never Too Late”) — 7/11. Wicked — 12/5
2. Dune: Part Two — 31/10
3. A Complete Unknown — 37/10
4. Emilia Pérez — 6/1
5. The Wild Robot — 17/21. Dune: Part Two — 46/25
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes — 18/5
3. Wicked — 9/2
4. Better Man — 6/1
5. Alien: Romulus — 17/21. The Wild Robot — 9/5
2. Flow — 3/1
3. Inside Out 2 — 5/1
4. Memoir of a Snail — 15/2
5. Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl — 8/11. No Other Land — 13/8
2. Sugarcane — 4/1
3. Black Box Diaries — 5/1
4. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat — 13/2
5. Porcelain War — 8/11. Emilia Pérez — 17/10
2. I’m Still Here — 16/5
3. The Seed of the Sacred Fig — 11/2
4. Flow — 13/2
5. The Girl with the Needle — 9/11. “Beautiful Men” — 23/10
2. “Wander to Wonder” — 7/2
3. “Yuck!” — 19/5
4. “In the Shadow of the Cypress” — 11/2
5. “Magic Candies” — 8/1

1. “I Am Ready, Warden” — 11/5
2. “Incident” — 31/10
2. “The Only Girl in the Orchestra” — 5/1
4. “Death by Numbers” — 11/2
5. “Instruments of a Beating Heart” — 8/11. “The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent” — 11/5
2. “Anuja” — 10/3
3. “I’m Not a Robot” — 4/1
4. “A Lien” — 6/1
5. “The Last Ranger” — 8/1SIGN UP for Gold Derby’s free newsletter with latest predictionsFernanda Torres in I’m Still Here is the best performance of the year in my opinion.I can’t believe how well ‘The Brutalist’ is being received! The cinematography looks stunning and the storyline is so impactful. Definitely a strong contender for Best Picture!I can’t wait to see how ‘The Brutalist’ performs at the Oscars! The storyline about a Holocaust survivor sounds incredibly powerful. Hoping it gets the recognition it deserves!Just finished The Brutalist, which was a brutal 3-1/2 hours of my life that I’ll never get back. I know Hollywood loves its passion pieces, but this might better have been done in a limited mini series on Netflix. Not only was it a series of scenes that sometimes didn’t see me to flow, because I had so many questions along the way that I don’t think I’d invest any more time to figure out. The reward at the end of the marathon was a ten minute tribute to a character that wasn’t even real! Brody deserves the nod. Not one likable character and I was less interested by the third hour in what happened to them. Pearce and Jones can thank Brody for the ride. Not nearly as good as the Dylan film, A Complete Unknown.Completely agree. I love Complete Unknown. I can’t believe that the talent in this movie, especially Timothee Chalamet, recounting the initiation of an American icon is over looked in favour of a very dull story of a fictional hot head.A Complete Unknown was excellent I didn’t want it to end.You didn’t even put all the actresses up for best actress and left out the one that actually won the golden globe. Very poor reporting.These implied odds are so far off realty.It appears that even if the favorite is an extremely firm
favorite with say 90% of the votes, this should mean 90% chance of winning, yet the Goldderby odds would be around say 3/2 which is 67%.Similarly an extreme outsider with say 1% of the votes ie odds of 1% ends up with at worst Goldderby odds of around 9/1 ie 10%.What formulae is used to calculate these odds because they are clearly wrong.There is no way in hell that the absolutely awful and indulgent and boring and pointless “The Brutatlist” will win. Absolutely not…. These odds are ridiculous…. Pic will be a much more well liked film across a wider group like “A Complete Unknown” or “Conclave” and possibly “Wicked” (which should win)…Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *Comment * Name * Email * Website

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Editors and experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen recap the highs and lows of the 2025 Oscar nominations. They debate the nice surprises (I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys) and snubs (Denzel, Nicole, Angelina). Click the photo above to watch the video.
Watch our chats with Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) and many more 2025 Oscar nominees…Take a trip back to the Academy Awards ceremonies of the recent past with Gold Derby’s Oscars Playback series. Hosts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen recap every Oscar ceremony of the 1990s and 2000s. Joyce and Chris tackle the highs and lows of each show and see how the winners aged. It’s a wonderful night for Oscar, whenever you watch!
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