2025 Oscar nominations predictions: Official odds favor ‘Emilia Pérez,’ ‘The Brutalist,’ and ‘Conclave’ – Gold Derby

GoldDerbyThe Oscar nominations will be announced on Thursday after being twice-delayed due to the Los Angeles wildfires. Almost 10,000 registered Gold Derby users have placed their bets in all categories, and we’ve crunched the numbers to generate our official odds.Emilia Pérez is expected to dominate the list with 11 nominations including Best Picture, Best Director (Jacques Audiard), Best Actress (Karla Sofía Gascón), Best Supporting Actress (Zoe Saldaña), and Best Adapted Screenplay, with three expected wins for Saldaña, Best Original Song (“El Mal”), and Best International Feature. But the film expected to collect the top prizes is The Brutalist. Both of those movies won Golden Globes for Best Picture — Emilia as a comedy/musical, Brutalist as a drama — but it’s the latter that has jumped the top of our Oscars Best Picture rankings. Of its 10 anticipated noms, The Brutalist is also ahead to win Best Director (Brady Corbet), Best Actor (Adrien Brody), Best Cinematography, and Best Original Score.

Also with a projected 10 nominations will be Conclave, the papal political thriller from director Edward Berger. His whose previous film, All Quiet on the Western Front, was a hit at the Oscars with four trophies in nine nominations, though Berger was notably snubbed from the Best Director lineup. He’ll make it in this time, according to our forecast. So will lead actor Ralph Fiennes, who hasn’t been nominated at the Oscars since The English Patient (1996). The film’s best bet for a win is Best Adapted Screenplay for writer Peter Straughan, who won the Golden Globe for Conclave and was a previous Oscar nominee for cowriting Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (2011).Wicked is slated to be next in line with eight bids. The first installment of the two-part Broadway musical adaptation is in line to collect nominations for Best Picture, Best Actress (Cynthia Erivo), and Best Supporting Actress (Ariana Grande), in addition to several below-the-line nods, of which it’s the frontrunner to win Best Costume Design and Best Production Design. Dune: Part Two is next up, with a predicted seven noms, including Best Picture. That would be three shy of the first installment’s haul; Dune: Part One ended up winning six statuettes out of its 10 bids, and many of those winning craftspeople are expected to return to their respective races with repeat victories predicted for Best Film Editing, Best Sound, and Best Visual Effects. Rounding out the Best Picture race:  Anora, A Complete Unknown, A Real Pain, Sing Sing, and The Substance. Make or update your own predictions here before the Jan. 23 announcement.

Here is the complete list of Gold Derby’s official Oscar nomination odds, with the current projected winners highlighted in gold.BEST PICTURE
The Brutalist — 6/1
Anora — 13/2
Conclave — 7/1
Emilia Pérez — 7/1
Wicked — 17/2
A Complete Unknown — 21/2
Dune: Part Two — 23/2
The Substance — 14/1
A Real Pain — 18/1
Sing Sing — 25/1BEST DIRECTOR
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist — 9/5
Sean Baker, Anora — 4/1
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez — 5/1
Edward Berger, Conclave — 11/2
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance — 23/2BEST ACTRESS
Demi Moore, The Substance — 12/5
Mikey Madison, Anora — 11/4
Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez — 11/2
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked — 15/2
Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here — 21/2BEST ACTOR
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist — 39/20
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave — 39/10
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown — 4/1
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing — 11/2
Daniel Craig, Queer — 18/1BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez, 83/50
Ariana Grande, Wicked — 37/10
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave — 6/1
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist — 17/2
Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl — 22/1BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain — 83/50
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist — 5/1
Yura Borisov, Anora — 6/1
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown — 13/2
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice — 16/1BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Conclave — 83/50
Sing Sing — 5/1
Emilia Pérez — 5/1
Nickel Boys — 7/1
A Complete Unknown — 9/1

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anora — 41/20
The Brutalist — 17/5
A Real Pain — 4/1
The Substance — 7/1
Hard Truths — 18/1BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Brutalist — 15/8
Dune: Part Two — 37/10
Nosferatu — 15/2
Conclave — 9/1
Nickel Boys — 10/1BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Wicked — 31/20
Dune: Part Two — 5/1
Nosferatu — 6/1
Gladiator II — 9/1
Conclave — 13/1BEST FILM EDITING
Dune: Part Two — 82/25
Conclave — 4/1
Anora — 9/2
The Brutalist — 5/1
Emilia Pérez — 8/1BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
The Substance — 83/50
Wicked — 4/1
Nosferatu — 7/1
A Different Man — 15/2
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice — 12/1BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Wicked — 7/4
Dune: Part Two — 4/1
The Brutalist — 4/1
Conclave — 17/2
Nosferatu — 10/1BEST SCORE
The Brutalist — 41/20
Conclave — 16/5
Emilia Pérez — 11/2
The Wild Robot — 15/2
Challengers — 15/2BEST SONG
“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez — 9/5
“Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot — 37/10
“Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez — 6/1
“The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight — 15/2
“Like a Bird” from Sing Sing — 20/1BEST SOUND
Dune: Part Two — 46/25
Wicked — 37/10
A Complete Unknown — 6/1
Emilia Pérez — 7/1
Gladiator II — 15/2BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune: Part Two — 9/5
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes — 9/2
Wicked — 13/2
Better Man — 15/2
Gladiator II — 19/2BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Wild Robot — 46/25
Flow — 17/5
Inside Out 2 — 9/2
Memoir of a Snail — 15/2
Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl — 8/1

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
No Other Land — 17/10
Sugarcane — 9/2
Daughters — 13/2
Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat — 8/1
Black Box Diaries — 14/1BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Emilia Pérez — 13/8
I’m Still Here — 9/2
The Seed of the Sacred Fig — 9/2
Kneecap — 17/2
Flow — 13/1BEST ANIMATED SHORT
A Bear Named Wojtek — 13/5
Beautiful Men — 39/10
Yuck! — 6/1
Wander to Wonder — 6/1
A Crab in the Pool — 14/1BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Once Upon a Time in Ukraine — 27/10
I Am Ready, Warden — 69/20
Makayla’s Voice: A Letter to the World — 5/1
Incident — 19/2
Death by Numbers — 10/1BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent — 12/5
The Masterpiece — 37/10
An Orange from Jaffa — 11/2
Anuja — 15/2
Dovecote — 21/2How come we haven’t heard much about the fact that Zoe Saldaña could be personally responsible for THREE Oscar wins — herself for Best Supporting Actress, “El Mal” for Best Original Song (Saldaña’s big Emilia Pérez number), AND Dovecote for Best Live Action Short (she stars in it, is one of its co-producers, AND her husband Marco Perego directed it)? Live Action Short can have some weird surprises in it, like last year when Wes Anderson won for The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, or even 1994 when Peter Capaldi won it for Franz Kafka’s It’s a Wonderful Life two decades before becoming Doctor Who’s Twelfth Doctor.And no, I didn’t forget who actually gets Best Original Song. In fact, if the predictions hold I believe Jacques Audiard will become the first person ever nominated for both Best Director & Best Original Song, the latter for helping Camille & Clement Ducol write “El Mal”. (Ryan Coogler has a nom for BOS, but not for his day job.)And, if this list holds (and as noted in another Gold Derby article a few days ago), Emilia Pérez would surpass Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon & Roma as the most nominated non-English language film ever. (Even Parasite didn’t reach 10 noms when it became the first such film to win Best Picture.)Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *Comment * Name * Email * Website

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Editors and experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen recap the highs and lows of the 2025 Oscar nominations. They debate the nice surprises (I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys) and snubs (Denzel, Nicole, Angelina). Click the photo above to watch the video.
Watch our chats with Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) and many more 2025 Oscar nominees…Take a trip back to the Academy Awards ceremonies of the recent past with Gold Derby’s Oscars Playback series. Hosts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen recap every Oscar ceremony of the 1990s and 2000s. Joyce and Chris tackle the highs and lows of each show and see how the winners aged. It’s a wonderful night for Oscar, whenever you watch!
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